“We do not comment on rumour and speculation” are the words said repeatedly by PR bodies over the course of the past year.

But ladies and gentlemen, “it’s time!”

So E3 is only a week away and most of us gamers are getting hyped.

Sony is going to own the expo, the number of impressive games they will show off cannot be surpassed. But owning the expo itself and leaving the biggest impression on journalists are two different things.

Colourful example: A skater is filmed performing impressive ollies, kickflips and grinds in a park, there are hours of this footage – it’s beautiful. But a nose grind goes wrong and the skater’s privates are greeted by the vengeful rail. What gets posted on Youtube first?

What Microsoft have on their side is anticipation. MS hasn’t come out this year matching Sony’s line-up game for game. Some will argue this is because they don’t have enough games to do so. Another argument would be that MS are trying a different strategy this year.

There has been much talk of motion control from MS, so who’s to say that there won’t be a massive game line-up to compliment such a peripheral. It would be a mistake for MS to show this peripheral with a handful of games that use it. If the range of games using the technology doesn’t start out competing with Wii, then who’s going to want to invest in it?

That’s MS, second year running encroaching on Wii territory (if you can tell yourself 360 Avatars aren’t Mii’s, you’ve never made a Mii), but is it worth the effort? Only if MS can successfully promote the 360 as an entertainment device all-in-one, enticing Wii owners to ‘upgrade.’ There being enough Wii owners interested in that stuff is another story.

MS launching this peripheral along with games would be a big story, especially if it’s soon, like Christmas. MS’s job is done against Nintendo. Now for Sony. Sony has a game line-up that takes it into March next year. What can MS announce to counter this?

Halo. Would MS announce a fourth in the series to calm the masses of 360 owners wondering where all their exclusives are, rushing it onto shelves within a year? No. MS aren’t going to do a rush job on its most significant franchise. The consequences of a bad Halo game would be catastrophic. Halo is MS’s Seal of Quality. If it is broken, what do they have (first party) to replace it?

People are talking about Crackdown 2, Splinter Cell, Alan Wake and APB. The later two will be shown, but unless they are ten times more impressive than I’ve heard, they aren’t going to steal headlines from Sony.

At this point it seems MS is content to consolidate its hardcore install base. Offering third party exclusives and exclusive DLC. Third party exclusives carry a stigma, owners of other consoles expect them to come out on their system sooner or later. For third party exclusives to sell systems, they need to be impressive, unique and promoted massively/expensively.

For me it’s all about the games. Without games to show off a motion device, MS will fail. If a new full Halo is rushed, MS will fail. If the only games are third party titles, MS will fail.

But MS’s expansion into the casual market and consolidating its hardcore install base IS the counter attack. The larger and most cost effective expansion (profit) is into the casual market. With a price point of 200 dollars since Nov 2008, how many hardcore gamers are left to buy a 360?

The answer is too few for investing in new first party IP’s to turn the larger profit.

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